Creating Wise Crowds: How Positive Culture and Fair Process Can Prevent “Madness”

Evidence demonstrates both the Wisdom of Crowds (Collective Intelligence) and the Madness of Crowds (Group Think) in collective forecasts. Forecasts underpin most decisions; good decisions, therefore, require good forecasts. In this talk, Scott Page discusses the phenomena of wise and mad crowds in the context of forecasts, demonstrates the logic of how diversity can produce accurate collective forecasts (the wisdom of crowds), and the necessity of (1) a positive culture where people feel comfortable sharing ideas, clarifying logic, and facts and (2) a process that facilitates collective knowledge production for both good decisions and acceptance of those decisions. Scott concludes with a discussion of differing perspectives on using technology to enable anonymous participation.

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